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NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Newmont delivered $5.01B in sales, Adjusted EPS of $1.25, Adjusted EBITDA of $2.629B, and record Q1 free cash flow of $1.205B; average realized gold price was $2,944/oz .
  • Completed the non-core divestiture program, receiving over $2.5B after-tax cash proceeds YTD and affirming up to $4.3B total gross proceeds; declared a $0.25 dividend and reported $1.0B in total shareholder returns YTD .
  • Guidance reiterated: FY25 attributable gold ~5.9 Moz, CAS ~$1,200/oz, AISC ~$1,630/oz; sustaining capital ~$1.875B, development capital ~$1.330B, adjusted tax rate ~34% .
  • Management flagged Q2 headwinds to free cash flow (seasonal taxes, higher sustaining/dev capex, divested ounces), but remains “on track” for FY25 guidance; catalysts include continuing buybacks, balance sheet strengthening (net debt $3.221B; liquidity ~$8.8B) and Ahafo North commissioning later this year .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Generated a record first quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion,” driven by robust operations and strong gold prices .
  • Completed all non-core asset sales; received >$2.5B after-tax cash proceeds in 1H25; total divestiture gross proceeds expected up to $4.3B .
  • Balance sheet strengthened: ended with $4.7B cash, ~$8.8B total liquidity; net debt/Adjusted EBITDA at 0.3x .
  • “Delivered $1.0 billion in total returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments since the start of the year” .

What Went Wrong

  • Attributable gold production fell 19% q/q to 1,537 koz due to reduced non-core contributions, lower JV output, safety pauses and mine sequencing effects .
  • Unit costs rose: CAS/oz increased 12% q/q to $1,227; AISC/oz increased 13% q/q to $1,651, reflecting lower production, royalties, and cost allocation effects .
  • Working capital outflow of $141M (inventory build, reclamation cash spend), reducing net cash from operating activities by 19% q/q to $2.031B .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Sales ($USD Billions)$4.605 $5.652 $5.010
Net income attributable to stockholders ($USD Billions)$0.922 $1.403 $1.891
Diluted EPS (reported) ($USD)$0.80 $1.24 $1.68
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.81 $1.40 $1.25
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.967 $3.048 $2.629
Net cash from operating activities ($USD Billions)$1.637 $2.511 $2.031
Free cash flow ($USD Billions)$0.760 $1.636 $1.205
Average realized gold price ($/oz)$2,518 $2,643 $2,944
Gold CAS per ounce ($/oz)$1,207 $1,096 $1,227
Gold AISC per ounce ($/oz)$1,611 $1,463 $1,651

Segment production summary (gold)

SegmentQ3 2024 (koz)Q4 2024 (koz)Q1 2025 (koz)
Managed Tier 1 Portfolio1,053 1,209 1,034
Non-Managed Tier 1 Portfolio351 381 308
Non-Core Assets264 309 195
Total Attributable Gold Production1,668 1,899 1,537

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & cash equivalents ($USD Billions)$3.619 $4.698
Total liquidity ($USD Billions)~$7.7 ~$8.8
Net debt ($USD Billions)$5.308 $3.221
Net debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x)0.6 0.3
Capital expenditures ($USD Billions)$0.875 $0.826
Working capital change ($USD Billions)+$0.113 –$0.141

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Feb 20, 2025)Current Guidance (Apr 23, 2025)Change
Attributable gold production (Moz)FY 20255.9 5.9 Maintained
Gold CAS ($/oz)FY 2025$1,200 $1,200 Maintained
Gold AISC ($/oz)FY 2025$1,630 $1,630 Maintained
Sustaining capital ($USD Millions)FY 2025$1,875 $1,875 Maintained
Development capital ($USD Millions)FY 2025$1,330 $1,330 Maintained
Adjusted tax rate (%)FY 202534% 34% Maintained
Depreciation & amortization ($USD Millions)FY 2025$2,600 $2,600 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Safety cultureFatalities drove renewed programs; focus on culture/systems/skills Launched “Always Safe”; remarked decrease in significant potential events Improving execution on safety systems
Divestiture programTargets up to $4.3B gross; multiple transactions announced Program completed; >$2.5B after-tax proceeds in 1H25 Completed; proceeds funding buybacks/debt reduction
AISC/costsElevated costs signaled into 2025 (Cadia tailings, inflation, royalties) Q1 AISC $1,651/oz; CAS/oz up; Q2 unit costs similar/slightly higher Costs up near-term; management targeting productivity gains
Capital allocation$3B buyback auth; debt below $8B; dividend $1/share policy reiterated $755M repurchases YTD; $0.25 dividend; considering further debt reduction Ongoing buybacks; prudent deleveraging
Tariffs/macroMonitoring macro; cost drivers detailed Tariff exposure manageable; labor ~50% costs; grinding media steel, energy tailwinds Watchful; supply chain diversified
Lihir operational planReconfiguring mine plan; expected 30% production lift in 2028 Inventory/CAS timing effects; long-term ~30% lift from 2028 Stabilize near-term; upside later
Ahafo NorthConstruction advancing; first gold 2H25 Commissioning prep; first gold and commercial production targeted this year On track
Red Chris & Cadia block cavesRed Chris feasibility; Cadia panel caves ramp Red Chris “next cab off the rank” if economics/permitting align Advancing studies

Management Commentary

  • “Generated a record first quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion, demonstrating the strength of our unrivaled Tier 1 Portfolio.” — Tom Palmer, CEO .
  • “We have successfully completed the divestment of all 6 of our high-quality noncore operations… we have now received more than $2.5 billion in after-tax cash proceeds this year.” — Tom Palmer .
  • “Gold all-in sustaining costs remained in line with our full year guidance at $1,651 per ounce for the first quarter… adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 billion and adjusted net income of $1.25 per diluted share.” — Karyn Ovelmen, CFO .
  • “We remain on track to achieve our 2025 commitments… focus on safely generating industry-leading free cash flow, maintaining a strong financial position and returning capital.” — Tom Palmer .

Q&A Highlights

  • Lihir costs: ~$100M inventory adjustment impacted CAS in the quarter; expected to normalize; Lihir to meet full-year cost guidance .
  • Buyback cadence: Robust program supported by divestiture proceeds and elevated gold price; ongoing repurchases planned through year .
  • Tariff exposure: Labor ~50% of direct costs; grinding media exposed to steel; energy tailwinds; overall impacts consistent with assumptions .
  • Ahafo North progress: Highway diversion complete; piping/cabling underway; commissioning of mill/processing imminent; first gold and commercial production expected this year .
  • Debt: No specific near-term actions, but management is evaluating opportunistic further reduction to “buffer the balance sheet” amid macro uncertainty .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.25* vs $0.912*, revenue $5.010B* vs $4.740B*, EBITDA $2.698B* vs $2.312B* — all above consensus [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
  • Ongoing estimate implications: Higher realized gold prices and completed divestitures support cash generation; near-term unit cost pressure may temper margin expectations into Q2, but guidance unchanged .
MetricQ1 2025 Consensus*Q1 2025 Actual*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.9119*1.25*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)4.740*5.010*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)2.312*2.698*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Cash engine is robust: $2.031B operating cash and $1.205B FCF in Q1, with net debt reduced to $3.221B and liquidity ~$8.8B — supports continued buybacks/dividends .
  • Guidance intact: FY25 production/cost guidance reaffirmed; Q2 flagged for seasonal FCF headwinds (taxes, capex) — monitor for execution against “on track” commentary .
  • Cost vigilance: CAS/AISC rose on lower volumes and royalties; near-term unit costs similar/slightly higher in Q2 — watch for productivity/cost initiatives to offset .
  • Portfolio quality improving: Non-core divestitures completed with >$2.5B after-tax proceeds; focus shifts to Tier 1 assets and execution on Ahafo North commissioning .
  • Project pipeline: Red Chris feasibility advancing; Cadia panel caves ramping; Lihir configured for ~30% production uplift from 2028 — medium-term growth visibility with a margin focus .
  • Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include continued buybacks/dividend, Q2 update on working capital/taxes and Ahafo North first gold; risks are unit cost inflation and JV cost dynamics (e.g., NGM AISC uptick) .