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NEWMONT Corp /DE/ (NEM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Newmont delivered $5.01B in sales, Adjusted EPS of $1.25, Adjusted EBITDA of $2.629B, and record Q1 free cash flow of $1.205B; average realized gold price was $2,944/oz .
- Completed the non-core divestiture program, receiving over $2.5B after-tax cash proceeds YTD and affirming up to $4.3B total gross proceeds; declared a $0.25 dividend and reported $1.0B in total shareholder returns YTD .
- Guidance reiterated: FY25 attributable gold ~5.9 Moz, CAS ~$1,200/oz, AISC ~$1,630/oz; sustaining capital ~$1.875B, development capital ~$1.330B, adjusted tax rate ~34% .
- Management flagged Q2 headwinds to free cash flow (seasonal taxes, higher sustaining/dev capex, divested ounces), but remains “on track” for FY25 guidance; catalysts include continuing buybacks, balance sheet strengthening (net debt $3.221B; liquidity ~$8.8B) and Ahafo North commissioning later this year .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- “Generated a record first quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion,” driven by robust operations and strong gold prices .
- Completed all non-core asset sales; received >$2.5B after-tax cash proceeds in 1H25; total divestiture gross proceeds expected up to $4.3B .
- Balance sheet strengthened: ended with $4.7B cash, ~$8.8B total liquidity; net debt/Adjusted EBITDA at 0.3x .
- “Delivered $1.0 billion in total returns to shareholders through share repurchases and dividend payments since the start of the year” .
What Went Wrong
- Attributable gold production fell 19% q/q to 1,537 koz due to reduced non-core contributions, lower JV output, safety pauses and mine sequencing effects .
- Unit costs rose: CAS/oz increased 12% q/q to $1,227; AISC/oz increased 13% q/q to $1,651, reflecting lower production, royalties, and cost allocation effects .
- Working capital outflow of $141M (inventory build, reclamation cash spend), reducing net cash from operating activities by 19% q/q to $2.031B .
Financial Results
Segment production summary (gold)
KPIs and balance sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Generated a record first quarter free cash flow of $1.2 billion, demonstrating the strength of our unrivaled Tier 1 Portfolio.” — Tom Palmer, CEO .
- “We have successfully completed the divestment of all 6 of our high-quality noncore operations… we have now received more than $2.5 billion in after-tax cash proceeds this year.” — Tom Palmer .
- “Gold all-in sustaining costs remained in line with our full year guidance at $1,651 per ounce for the first quarter… adjusted EBITDA of $2.6 billion and adjusted net income of $1.25 per diluted share.” — Karyn Ovelmen, CFO .
- “We remain on track to achieve our 2025 commitments… focus on safely generating industry-leading free cash flow, maintaining a strong financial position and returning capital.” — Tom Palmer .
Q&A Highlights
- Lihir costs: ~$100M inventory adjustment impacted CAS in the quarter; expected to normalize; Lihir to meet full-year cost guidance .
- Buyback cadence: Robust program supported by divestiture proceeds and elevated gold price; ongoing repurchases planned through year .
- Tariff exposure: Labor ~50% of direct costs; grinding media exposed to steel; energy tailwinds; overall impacts consistent with assumptions .
- Ahafo North progress: Highway diversion complete; piping/cabling underway; commissioning of mill/processing imminent; first gold and commercial production expected this year .
- Debt: No specific near-term actions, but management is evaluating opportunistic further reduction to “buffer the balance sheet” amid macro uncertainty .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: EPS $1.25* vs $0.912*, revenue $5.010B* vs $4.740B*, EBITDA $2.698B* vs $2.312B* — all above consensus [Values retrieved from S&P Global].
- Ongoing estimate implications: Higher realized gold prices and completed divestitures support cash generation; near-term unit cost pressure may temper margin expectations into Q2, but guidance unchanged .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Cash engine is robust: $2.031B operating cash and $1.205B FCF in Q1, with net debt reduced to $3.221B and liquidity ~$8.8B — supports continued buybacks/dividends .
- Guidance intact: FY25 production/cost guidance reaffirmed; Q2 flagged for seasonal FCF headwinds (taxes, capex) — monitor for execution against “on track” commentary .
- Cost vigilance: CAS/AISC rose on lower volumes and royalties; near-term unit costs similar/slightly higher in Q2 — watch for productivity/cost initiatives to offset .
- Portfolio quality improving: Non-core divestitures completed with >$2.5B after-tax proceeds; focus shifts to Tier 1 assets and execution on Ahafo North commissioning .
- Project pipeline: Red Chris feasibility advancing; Cadia panel caves ramping; Lihir configured for ~30% production uplift from 2028 — medium-term growth visibility with a margin focus .
- Trading lens: Near-term catalysts include continued buybacks/dividend, Q2 update on working capital/taxes and Ahafo North first gold; risks are unit cost inflation and JV cost dynamics (e.g., NGM AISC uptick) .